A worrying labor shortage: and tomorrow?

Oct 10 2019 The Association de la construction du Québec unveiled the results of a major study carried out on the labor shortage affecting the construction sector. According to this study, over the next 10 years, an average shortfall of nearly 20,000 workers per year will be required to meet demand.

 

 

Supply and demand

There will be a significant shortfall in workers for years to come.

The Quebec Construction Association estimates that it would have taken approximately 25,000 more workers to arrive at so-called “normal” average hours worked in 2019.

If nothing changes in terms of recruitment in the construction field, the industry will face serious shortfalls as indicated in the cover table of the article (top).

This table presents the analysis of the gaps between labor demand and supply for all of Quebec.

 

Using an average over the next 10 years, the Association de la construction du Québec estimates that nearly 20,000 more workers will be needed by the industry to meet demand.

Among the trades most in demand are elevator mechanics, welders, interior systems installers, flexible coating installers and crane operators. However, the trades with the greatest need in terms of number of workers are bricklayers, painters, pipefitters, excavator operators, electricians and heavy equipment operators.

 

Record years to be expected for the next 10 years

Despite the threat of a global economic slowdown, the study shows that the hours worked in Quebec will remain above the historical threshold of  2012, and  this for the next 10 years. These record levels of hours worked will continue to put enormous pressure on construction companies.

In the following table, we observe a slight slowdown in the institutional-commercial sector, but this sector will experience a recovery from 2021 to reach historic levels again in 2022, in particular due to government investments.

 

Forecast of labor demand in hours – All of Quebec

 

The consequences of an industry running at full capacity

The Quebec Construction Association admits that the situation is now more problematic than ever and that construction contractors are struggling with the consequences of this shortage.

Construction contractors are unanimous: 77% say they have not been able to fill all their journeyman positions, 67% their apprenticeship positions and 72% their occupation positions.

However, the consequences are major: entrepreneurs claim that their business is less profitable or competitive (62%), they refuse contracts (61%), work more hours themselves (60%), while more than half of them show delays in the delivery of their contracts (58%). To cope with the shortage, they postpone or spread contracts (55%) or hire and train less experienced workers (44%).

 

 

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